Nintendo is riding high atop the casual gaming wave, running so far out ahead of its competitors that the question is no longer who is going to win the sales war this generation, but rather who is coming in second. No one expected the Wii and DS to continue their unprecedented dominance for this long, and now KBC Securities analyst Hiroshi Kamide believes that Nintendo products may have peaked. When talking about the DS, Kamide states:

"Casual gaming growth has been the primary driver for the industry over the last three years, the key player being the Nintendo DS. We believe DS hardware demand has now peaked globally. A downturn in software demand is likely to follow, as casual gamers are ’happy with their lot’ and do not need to consume more."

So in a sense, Kamide believes that what has been Nintendo’s greatest strength this cycle will also be their largest weakness, as casual gamers aren’t the types to spend their days and nights scouring the internet for the lastest news on Nintendogs 2 or Brain Age 7. He also claims that a similar fate is in store for the Wii:

"We feel that the same predicament awaits the Wii console with its similar market expansion angle. Titles such as... ’Wii Fit’ do not act as ’gateway drugs’ to turn non-traditional gamers into core repeat users. We feel this is a structural industry issue that cannot be easily changed."

If Kamide’s words are to be believed, then that would mean that within the next year or so we will see Nintendo product sales plummet, with software likely to come to a screeching halt as well. Considering that neither the DS nor Wii have that many titles which currently appeal to hardcore gamers, then this group will not be able to step in and keep sales brisk once the casual well has dried up. We will soon see if Nintendo bears out the adage "live by the casual gamer, die by the casual gamer."